Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 24.197654 26.634978 29.383839 32.752283 36.824119 41.663224 47.971246
2025-02-09 20.883183 24.065903 27.962755 33.226396 40.397419 50.255534 65.757281
2025-02-16 18.556230 22.091577 26.688403 33.388928 43.492105 59.420812 90.139023
2025-02-23 16.689733 20.334401 25.285344 32.935367 45.468731 67.818974 121.177854
2025-03-02 15.414205 19.147373 24.411330 32.977454 48.152275 78.868262 174.001717
2025-03-09 14.324544 18.061772 23.487976 32.697529 50.139544 89.872773 255.393874
2025-03-16 13.408436 17.112268 22.620466 32.306568 51.763632 101.388166 397.320591
2025-03-23 12.649584 16.311777 21.872252 31.962666 53.364266 114.475869 707.336546
2025-03-30 12.025908 15.653073 21.265474 31.752876 55.197522 130.571847 1779.689584
2025-04-06 11.381152 14.909110 20.439856 30.990113 55.494760 141.952302 7581.415827
2025-04-13 11.197603 14.857333 20.747689 32.471725 62.035253 192.447748 NaN
2025-04-20 10.745235 14.347201 20.221037 32.168045 63.641858 222.599161 NaN
2025-04-27 10.389768 13.973989 19.908750 32.293257 66.718669 276.155049 NaN
2025-05-04 10.091181 13.672790 19.696209 32.605198 70.631913 362.973669 NaN
2025-05-11 9.787862 13.344098 19.404023 32.692559 73.923079 480.671873 NaN
2025-05-18 9.439487 12.920679 18.903628 32.223063 75.032776 590.591264 NaN
2025-05-25 9.179312 12.630098 18.627466 32.248965 78.188268 847.278128 NaN
2025-06-01 8.903638 12.298722 18.249250 31.972631 80.043769 1198.899493 NaN
2025-06-08 8.636248 11.968470 17.850399 31.593027 81.348685 1757.092953 NaN
2025-06-15 8.392319 11.667168 17.487639 31.260365 82.799591 2957.396466 NaN
2025-06-22 8.178178 11.407523 17.189155 31.057612 84.875682 7511.077476 NaN
2025-06-29 7.922242 11.065372 16.709221 30.322195 83.947998 14300.330045 NaN
2025-07-06 7.896951 11.121990 17.019722 31.749573 95.787255 NaN NaN